Study: Extended Interconnection Queue Times Plague Wind, Solar

In a report likely to be used by interests on all sides of the U.S. power grid picture, big energy data and analytics firm Enverus says developers of wind, solar, and stationary battery projects can expect queue times of 4 to 9 years before they can be interconnected into the various regional power grids. The waiting period for interconnection depends on an array of policy and economic variables, but Enverus finds that developers can gauge expectations based in large part on their project’s geographic location.

Ryan Luther, research director at Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), said in the report’s Executive Summary, “The surge in investment and development has overwhelmed interconnection queues, with a record number of projects seeking grid connections. This has exceeded grid operators’ processing capacity, causing significant delays and project suspensions.”

Shortest Queue Times In Texas and New England

Enverus identifies regional power grids in New England – operated by independent system operator ISO-NE – and the Texas grid operated by ERCOT.

By contrast, the longest queue times were identified in the CAISO power grid in California and NYISO grid which serves New York. Neither of those latter findings should come as any real surprise given the heavy-handed regulatory environments in those two states. The significantly shorter time on the ERCOT grid may come as a surprise to many given that so much criticism has been leveled at the Texas grid manager since February 2021, when Winter Storm Uri caused massive, days-long blackouts resulting in the deaths of more than 300 Texans.

EIR compiled its findings by analyzing timelines for projects which became operational during the 2022-2024 period, using its proprietary advanced analytics platform, PRISM.

IRA Incentives Have Lengthened Queue Delays

In its release, EIR notes that generous tax credits contained in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, along with Biden-era EPA’s enhanced requirements designed to shut down coal-fired power plants have combined to boost demand for wind, solar, and battery projects across the country. But that reality has had an unintended consequence.

“The surge in investment and development has overwhelmed interconnection queues, with a record number of projects seeking grid connections,” the company says in a release, adding, “This has exceeded grid operators’ processing capacity, causing significant delays and project suspensions. Understanding project suspensions and success rates is critical, as these factors vary by independent system operators (ISO), technology type and project stage.”

EIR emphasizes its analysts’ finding that about 90% of these proposed projects never progress beyond the interconnection queue, noting that, “Based on our gradient-boosting machine learning model, we predict that only ~10% of projects will successfully come online in the next three years.” Obviously, these lengthy delays and bottlenecks in the interconnection process raise the coast of capital and result in a high percentage of proposed projects being cancelled.

Citing interconnection suspensions late in the development cycle as a major impediment to ultimate project success rates, as depicted in the chart below, EIR says, “NYISO, SPP, PJM and ISONE have more suspensions later in the project lifecycle, with interconnection agreement suspension rates ranging from 46% to 79%, compared to around 20% in ERCOT, CAISO and MISO. Consequently, projects in these markets show minimal improvement in completion probability until reaching construction.”

“Congestion, competition, aging infrastructure and interconnection bottlenecks are the biggest obstacles in the way of reaching our goal of siting projects, maximizing the production of renewable energy generators and delivering power where it’s needed the most,” says Silvia Alborghetti, director of Business Development at zhero. “But the information we need for project siting requires lots of resources and time to gather.”

The Bottom Line on Interconnection Queue Times

These findings by Enverus serve to emphasize both some unintended consequences created by the IRA tax incentives and subsidy programs, as well as the fact that the need to streamline permitting processes applies to all sources of energy. It also highlights the complexity of the interplay between federal, regional, and state policies.

The EIR study also emphasizes the enduring truth that time really is money, and the fact that taxpayers are forced to foot so much of the money being allocated to projects that never reach fruition due to these extended interconnection queue times becomes especially galling to many Americans. This really is no way to run a railroad, or more to the point, a power grid.