Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at five players with bust potential in Week 15 — a crucial week as most teams kick off the fantasy football playoffs.
Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
After a string of shotty games in Weeks 11-13, Hurts returned to form with a 24-fantasy-point outing to redeem fantasy managers in a crucial week. Despite it being his second consecutive game with fewer than 120 passing yards (and third of fewer than 180), he made up ground (literally) with 59 rushing yards and a score to complement his two passing TDs. No doubt, it’s been an up-and-down run for the Eagles’ passing game as of late, but thankfully, the run game has been strong enough to carry their win streak through the down times.
Though Hurts has weekly overall QB1 upside, this matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers feels like a bit of a trap that could set fantasy managers up for a less-than-desirable outcome. Not only have the Steelers limited opposing QBs to the third-fewest fantasy points per game this year — they’ve also found a ton of success against rushing QBs in particular.
The Steelers are yet to allow any quarterback 20+ fantasy points this year despite facing five of the top 12 leading rushers at the position, fantasy’s cheat code (Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson) approaching Week 15. Pittsburgh held these runners to a combined 101 rushing yards with a max of 46 to Lamar Jackson in Week 11; not a single one of them scored more than 15 fantasy points.
Given some of the Eagles’ recent struggles establishing rhythm in the passing game, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hurts fall outside of the top 12 again this week.
Heat check 🔥 Most fantasy football managers (unless you’re in a dynasty league with an embarrassment of riches at QB) can’t afford to sit Hurts in a critical week. However, be aware that Hurts is exactly the QB prototype that Pittsburgh has limited this season.
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills
James Cook has done just that this year — cooked. The concerns about a lack of touchdown upside with Josh Allen stealing goal-line touches haven’t mattered; Cook is up to 11 touchdowns on the ground and another through the air, sitting as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. It’s not particularly surprising he’s found a chunk of the pie, as there’s been plenty of scoring to go around with the Bills scoring 30+ points in all but three games this year.
This week, the Bills get a matchup against the Detroit Lions with Vegas’ highest projected point total of any game this week, but Buffalo is currently 2.5-point road underdogs against a defense that’s yet to allow a single RB 100+ rushing yards in a game this year. A big part of that has been due to game script, facing the second-lowest run rate in the league (32.9%), forcing teams to pass more often thanks to leading the league with 49 offensive touchdowns this year. The Lions haven’t been the most dominant run stuffers in the league, but the lack of volume against the defense has led to the second-fewest points per game allowed to RBs this season (15.05).
This embedded content is not available in your region.
Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
Heat check 🔥 Start Cook in Week 15, but with the knowledge that it could be a down week in terms of volume for him, making him more touchdown-dependent than usual. Cook has averaged just 7.6 fantasy points and 13.75 touches per game in the four outings in which the Bills defense has allowed 25+ points. The Lions have an implied point total of 29 this week.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
This is Nick Chubb’s second consecutive week on the fantasy busts list; I’m officially calling it — we cannot sensibly start him in the fantasy playoffs. Consider this your final, everlasting warning through the remainder of the season; I promise, he won’t make his way to the fades column again this season.
It’s not particularly surprising, but Chubb’s efficiency has been abysmal in his return from a season-ending knee injury in 2023. Among the 37 RBs with 90+ carries this year, Chubb ranks dead last in YPC average (3.1) and YPRR (0.4), with the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.59) and third-lowest first down/touchdown rate at 17.2%.
Not only has he continued to split work over the past two weeks (20 carries to Jerome Ford’s 19), but he’s also got an upcoming matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing a league-low 13.09 fantasy points and 58.5 rush yards per game to opposing RBs. Pass.
Heat check 🔥 Once again, I implore you to seek other options at RB. Chubb is a boom/bust, touchdown-dependent RB for fantasy, now in a timeshare with a challenging matchup on deck, better left on benches if you have any better options.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts have been a tricky offense to project every week thanks to the volatility of Anthony Richardson as a passer in his second NFL season. That volatility has trickled down to the pass catchers, who have struggled to find fantasy relevance. That’s true of Michael Pittman Jr. as well, having failed to surpass the 15-point mark in a single week this season in half-PPR formats. Now, in this crucial Week 15, it’s not the time to allow him to re-enter the Circle of Trust, even if he is coming off a bye week, presumably healthier than he was prior.
Next up on the schedule, the Colts will face the Denver Broncos secondary, with Pittman likely set to face plenty of CB Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos are playing man coverage at the third-highest rate this season (38.9%), against which Pittman has generally struggled this year — perhaps, in part, due to health, as he’s dealt with a back injury this season. He ranks last among his fellow Colts WRs averaging 7.1 YPR, 0.76 YPRR and 2.8 yards after the catch per reception against man; this could be a better opportunity for WR Josh Downs, who’s excelled at a higher rate.
Heat check 🔥 Sit Pittman for better options in Week 15; his upside is not worth the low floor, especially in a must-win week.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
After missing three games with a knee injury, it’s looking likely that second-year TE Dalton Kincaid will make his return to the Bills lineup in Week 15 … but that doesn’t necessarily mean he should return to your fantasy lineups. It’s no secret that 2024 has been a disappointing campaign for the former first-round pick; despite a clear opportunity to take over as a primary receiving option in the absence of Stefon Diggs (and a 24.7% target rate on routes run — the fourth-highest among TEs with 40+ targets), he’s failed to make an impact for fantasy managers.
Kincaid has seen a decrease in his receiving percentage since last year (80.2% to 61.8%) even though he’s seen an uptick in yards per reception (9.6 to 10.5), yards after the catch per reception (4.3 to 6.6) and yards per route run (1.51 to 1.60). Still, it’s not enough to compensate for the fact that he ranks 21st out of 30 TEs (min. 40 targets) in terms of the percentage of catchable targets that were caught (91.9%). Between that and Allen’s propensity to spread the ball around (especially in the red zone and end zone) it’s significantly limited his weekly upside.
The Bills’ Week 15 matchup with the Lions is a challenging one; Detroit is allowing the second-fewest EPA per dropback on targets to TEs this year (-0.28), surrendered a league-low 418 receiving yards over 13 games and the third-lowest passing success rate (43.8%) per NFL Next Gen Stats. It’s translated to a league-low 5.78 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs despite having faced names like Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, Cade Otton and Jake Ferguson over the course of the season.
Heat check 🔥 If you’ve survived the past three weeks without Dalton Kincaid, chances are you’ve found another, more suitable option at TE. Kincaid’s ceiling just hasn’t been high enough to justify a start in the fantasy playoffs, even if you’re hurting at the position.
